Monday, November 16, 2015

On Ben Carson's Misunderstanding Of What GDP Represents

Note: This commentary concerns the 3rd Republican Party presidential debate, which was held on 10/28/2015 in Boulder at the University of Colorado.

During the debate Ben Carson discussed his tax plan (which involves abolishing the IRS) and replacing it with a "tithing" system. Because, according to Carson, "I think God is a pretty fair guy".

But Carson's tax plan is just another example of how he doesn't understand economics (among a plethora of things we SHOULD expect a person who is QUALIFIED to be president to know).

Ben Carson: If you talk about an $18 trillion economy, you are talking about a 15 percent tax on your gross domestic product [GDP], you are talking about $2.7 trillion. We have a budget closer to $3.5 trillion. But if you also apply that same 15 percent to several other things, including corporate taxes and including the capital gains taxes, you make that amount up pretty quickly. So that's not, by any stretch, pie in the sky. (Does Ben Carson's tithe-based tax plan lead to a $1 trillion hole? by Linda Qiu. PolitiFact 11/4/2008).

The answer to the question "does Ben Carson's tithe-based tax plan lead to a $1 trillion hole?" is YES, it does. And, that Carson speaks of how much revenue his tax plan would generate based on our 18 trillion dollar economy also shows he doesn't know what GDP represents.

Definition of Gross Domestic Product: GDP is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis... GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation's overall economic activity.

The PolitiFact article quoted above also points out that there are other portions of our GDP beside government spending that is currently untaxed.

[in addition to government spending] not all of GDP is taxable... To apply his rate to all $18 trillion, Carson would have to tax health insurance premiums, pensions... to name a few.

BTW, Carson wants to cut government spending by around 30 percent, which would reduce our GDP. As if taxing government spending made any sense, given the fact that it's money the government got by taxing.

Carson's tax plan is a total stretch and completely pie in the sky, as he bases it on taxing the ENTIRE economy which includes government spending! This guy might be quite smart when it comes to his area of expertise (neurosurgery), but when it comes to the areas of knowledge a president needs to possess, Carson displays not just a lack of knowledge, but pure idiocy.

SWTD Tags: 2016 Election, Ben Carson.

DSB #27

Friday, November 13, 2015

Mathematical Proof That Republicans Are Engaging In Widespread Election Fraud

On the 11/13/2015 airing of The Thom Hartmann Program Thom had on Richard Charnin, an individual with a masters degree in applied mathamatics and author of the 2012 book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts.

Specifically Thom spoke with Mr. Charnin in regards to the 11/3/2015 election in which Matt Bevin supposedly beat Jack Conway and was elected governor, but he has applied his analysis to a number of other elections and found that the evidence points to widespread election theft - by Republicans.

Richard Charnin's analysis involves looking at Cumulative Vote Shares, which is what percentage of the vote each candidate gets in each county. Charnin found that in rural counties, vote shares match pre-election and exit polls, but in more urban counties they don't. Surely it is highly suspicious that that in rural counties, where the electorate tends to vote Republican, poll results match up, whereas in more urban areas, where the electorate tends to vote Democratic, they don't. (Red State, Blue City: How the Urban-Rural Divide Is Splitting America).

What follows is an excerpt from Mr. Charnin's blog.

Since the largest counties are usually heavily Democratic, the consistent pattern of Republican Governor candidates gaining share from small to large precincts is counter-intuitive. On the other hand, there is virtually no change in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties. This defies political reality and the Law of Large Numbers. (KY 2015 Governor: Cumulative Vote shares indicate Likely Fraud by Richard Charnin 11/5/2015).

What the Law of Large Numbers says is that because "there is virtually no change in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties", there should be virtually no change in vote shares in larger, heavily Democratic counties.

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. (Wikipedia/Law of large numbers).

Mathematical proof that Republicans are stealing (and have been stealing) elections? Looks like it to me. Further proof would be the fact (in KY) the Democrats running in the down ballot races - for Secretary of State, Attorney General and even state Auditor - each reportedly received tens of thousands more votes than Conway did at the top of the ticket. (DSB #25).

How likely is it that someone would vote straight ticket Democrat for EVERY SINGLE candidate on the ballot EXCEPT governor? I say NOT AT ALL LIKELY.

SWTD Tags: Election Theft, Thom Hartmann.

DSB #26

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Kentucky Election On 11/3/2015 In Which Matt Bevin "Won" The Governorship Was Likely Stolen

On the 11/10/2015 airing of The Thom Hartmann Program Thom said "I don't believe that Matt Bevin was actually elected governor of Kentucky. I don't believe that it's possible to defy the polls so largely". This statement in regards to the 11/3/2015 election in which Tea Party nut job Matt Bevin supposedly defeated his Democratic opponent Jack Conway.

[Regarding the KY "election" of Matt Bevin] We see, again... [an] election where all of the pre-election polls suggest Candidate X is set to win, but Candidate Y ends up winning by a huge margin... and nobody even bothers to verify that the computer tabulated results accurately reflect the intent of the voters. ... That's exactly what happened in KY... where Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway was leading by a fair margin (3-5 points) in almost every pre-election poll... but then ended up being announced as the loser to Tea Party Republican candidate Matt Bevin by a landslide (almost 9 points) - According to the state's 100% unverified computer tabulation systems.

...there are a number of reasons to question the reported results. ...the Democrats running in the down ballot races - for Secretary of State, Attorney General (Conway's current job) and even state Auditor - each reportedly received tens of thousands more votes than Conway did at the top of the ticket! Bev Harris of described the higher vote totals in the down ballot races as a "significant anomaly". ... "More votes in those races and not at the top - that just doesn't happen". (Questioning the Unverified Computer Results of Kentucky's Governor's Race by Brad Friedman. BradCast 11/4/2015).

Yeah, I don't buy this result either. Given the polls, and also given the popularity of Kentucky's state run ObamaCare exchange, Kynect, which Bevin ran on dismantling. He also says he wants to reverse the Medicaid expansion under the ACA, kicking thousands of Kentuckians off Medicaid. Me, I think that would motivate poor and lower middle class people to get out and vote for Conway.

I mean, it's one thing to vote against healthcare when you don't have it, but it's another matter to take it away after they already have it... and LIKE it.

More than 500k people have gotten health insurance in Kentucky through the state's health care exchange, Kynect, and through expanded Medicaid. Kentucky has seen the second-steepest drop in uninsured of any state. ... Kynect... has been held up as one of the best-functioning state exchanges in the country. (Popular Health Exchange In Jeopardy After Surprise Republican Win by Domenico Montanaro. NPR).

Also (according to the article quoted above) "in Kentucky, the governor has the power to unilaterally create or disband programs like Kynect".

So... the polls (just prior to the election) showed that the Kynect supporting candidate was ahead, but the Kynect dismantling candidate wins? This result doesn't pass the smell test, IMO. I'm with Thom Hartmann in thinking this is another election that was likely stolen by cheating Republicans.

SWTD Tags: Election Theft, Tea Party, Thom Hartmann.

DSB #25

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Hell Yes A Time Traveling Jeb! Would Kill Baby Hitler

If given access to a time machine would potus hopeful John Ellis Bush go back in time and kill Adolph Hitler as a baby? Obviously this is an example of the kind of important questions the voters are demanding answers to.

The question initially arose when The New York Times Magazine polled its readers last month and found that a plurality of respondents said they would, in fact, kill Hitler as a baby. Bush was then asked the question directly via the email address that he distributes widely to public audiences: But he did not answer the inquiry until asked on camera by HuffPost, while riding on his campaign bus in New Hampshire. (Jeb Bush On Whether He'd Kill Baby Hitler: "Hell Yeah, I Would!" by Scott Conroy. The Huffington Post 11/9/2015).

BTW, does the fact that Hitler wasn't a "born American" with Constitutional rights, but a German, explain why Jeb says "hell yes" to killing Baby Hitler sans due process? Although, if his answer were no, surely we could send Russ Feingold in his place (to do the butchering/aborting)?

Audio: "Baby Hitler" parody tune from Stephanie Miller Show contributor Rocky Mountain Mike.

SWTD Tags: 2016 Election, Abortion.

DSB #24

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Is Negotiating With Vladimir Putin The US President's #1 Job/Priority?

To hear Republicans tell it, it is. Also, to hear the current GOP potus hopefuls tell it, they'd all do a much better job of it than our current prez. Although our current prez disputes that.

President Obama on Monday night mocked the Republican candidates who complained heavily about the CNBC debate moderators and called for major changes to the debate format.

"Have you noticed that every one of these candidates say, "Obama's weak. Putin's kicking sand in his face. When I talk to Putin, he's going to straighten out", Obama said. "And then it turns out, they can't handle a bunch of CNBC moderators". (Obama: If GOPers Can't Handle CNBC Moderators, They Can't Handle Putin by Caitlin MacNeal. Talking Points Memo 11/3/2015).

Video: President Obama appeared at a fundraiser in New York on Monday 11/2/2015. He decided to have some fun with the Republican candidates for having a temper tantrum because they did not get the questions they wanted from the CNBC moderators. In effect they wanted softballs. The President called them out in a manner that made them seem rather whiny.

SWTD Tags: 2016 Election, Barack Obama, Republicans & Putin.

WTNPH: On Obama Making Fun of the Republican Candidates for Their Bitching and Moaning About the Recent (CNBC) Debate Moderators (11/7/2015).

DSB #23

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

One And Done?

"He spent a year of his life and countless hours away from his family training to save a life" the Right-wing placard offering a specious argument regarding why fast food workers don't deserve a raise says. The "he" referred to is an EMT who, apparently put in all this time training to save just one life. When he, IMO, should have been training to save LIVES, he trained to save just one person, apparently.

Which might explain why this EMT only makes $15 an hour. After all the expensive training he's only going to work until he saves one life. At least the burger flippers trained to flip more than ONE burger, for crying out loud! This might explain why their labor is worth more than $15 an hour? If this is the "difference" the Conservative-creator of this placard is talking about, then, YES, I do see it.

Image Description: Right-wing placard arguing against raising the minimum wage for fast food workers.

WTNPH Commentaries: Some Minimum-Wage Perspective 7/11/2015 and On the Concept of Paying Burger-Flippers the Same Wage as EMTs or Even CNA's and Teacher's Aides 11/10/2015.

SWTD Tags: Minimum Wage.

DSB #22